Topics this week include:

• Bitcoin
• Crude Oil
• Gold
• Winners - RBOB, Platinum
• Losers - Feeder Cattle, Oats

Futures Options Feedback: Listeners have their say

• Comment from TinySpec - @Options @QuikStrike1 @CMEGroup "Donald Trump might be long bitcoin! "?!?!?!?!?
• Question from MarkClydeBrant1 - Should CL be priced in BTC value of GC to strip out USD risk?...Can't wait to see the COT reports on BTC Commercial Shorts: BANKS.
• Comment from Ezpreso - Good bit on gold v #bitcoin from CME - openmarkets.cmegroup.com/12749/bitcoin-gold-growth-comparison
• Comment from Bilc - Good job on the show Nick! Mark left the show in good hands. He can take vacations more often.
• Question from LV67: Why is futures and FO data so hard to get?
• Question from Camper: Do you notice any interesting patterns in corn volatility skew ahead of crop planting or harvesting?
• Question from Tim Haver: What's the cost for the premium version of quikstrike? I like the free stuff that I play with during the show and I'm thinking about taking the plunge.
• Question from NOZ3T: Is it possible to hedge some of these aggregate commodity ETFs with puts in their underlying itself - so hedge USO with WTI puts, Corn with corn puts - you get the idea?
• Question from NOMNOM: I was excited about #bitcoin but this is giving me pause.

From the article: About 40 percent of bitcoin is held by perhaps 1,000 users; at current prices, each may want to sell about half of his or her holdings, says Aaron Brown, former managing director and head of financial markets research at AQR Capital Management. (Brown is a contributor to the Bloomberg Prophets online column.) What's more, the whales can coordinate their moves or preview them to a select few. Many of the large owners have known one another for years and stuck by bitcoin through the early days when it was derided, and they can potentially band together to tank or prop up the market.

Because bitcoin is a digital currency and not a security, he says, there's no prohibition against a trade in which a group agrees to buy enough to push the price up and then cashes out in minutes.

Other investors say the whales won't dump their holdings, because they have faith in the long-term potential of the coins. "I believe that it's common sense that these whales that own so much bitcoin and bitcoin cash, they don't want to destroy either one," says Sebastian Kinsman, who lives in Prague and trades coins. But as prices go through the roof, that calculation might change.

Topics this week include:

• Crude Oil
• Silver
• Bitcoin

Futures Options Feedback: Listeners weigh in

• Question from Knack - Like the show with the QuikSkew updates. What's the best way for me to take advantage of that information? Should I be trading risk reversals?
• Question from B98 - I know straddle runs are big thing in the indexes. Don't hear them used much in the ags or metals though. Why's that?

Topics this week include:

• Crude
• Gold
• Winners: Soybean Meal, Class 3 Milk
• Losers: Nat Gas, Oats

Futures Options Feedback: Options question of the week

The war for Bitcoin derivatives is heating up again. CME Group is launching #futures on 12/18. CBOE just announced a 12/10 launch date. Not enough? Nasdaq also announced futures with a planned Q2 2018 launch. With so many choices-How will you trade Bitcoin in 2018?

• CBOE Futures 12/10
• CME Futures 12/18
• Nasdaq Futures Q2 2018
• "Old School" Bitcoin

Listener questions and comments:

• Comment from Mark Clyde Brant‏: Who is listing options first? Probably CBOE!
• Many thx to Nick @QuikStrike1 for the heads up about miners bitcoin recycling and selling calls thereby dampening call skew! Keep the inside BTC skinny coming!
• Question from Chilic - Love the TWIFO. Good info. Back to collars - do you guys think bitcoin will be as favorable to collars as other commodities like precious metals?
• Comment from JonasGrumble - Last night, my 19yr old daughter texted me "Have you invested in #Bitcoin yet?" I think we are near a top. Can you say #Shoeshinegirl?
• Question from B98 - I know straddle runs are big thing in the indexes. Don't hear them used much in the ags or metals though. Why's that?
• Question from Baspin - Is gold still the leading candidate for you guys when you're lining up collar trades?
• Question from JacksonTill - What's the biggest #option with retail crowd? WTI? Emini? Gold? Something else?

Topics this week include:

• Crude
• Gold
• Winners: Soybean Meal, Class 3 Milk
• Losers: Nat Gas, Oats

Futures Options Feedback: Options question of the week

The war for Bitcoin derivatives is heating up again. CME Group is launching #futures on 12/18. CBOE just announced a 12/10 launch date. Not enough? Nasdaq also announced futures with a planned Q2 2018 launch. With so many choices-How will you trade Bitcoin in 2018?

• CBOE Futures 12/10
• CME Futures 12/18
• Nasdaq Futures Q2 2018
• "Old School" Bitcoin

Listener questions and comments:

• Comment from Mark Clyde Brant‏: Who is listing options first? Probably CBOE!
• Many thx to Nick @QuikStrike1 for the heads up about miners bitcoin recycling and selling calls thereby dampening call skew! Keep the inside BTC skinny coming!
• Question from Chilic - Love the TWIFO. Good info. Back to collars - do you guys think bitcoin will be as favorable to collars as other commodities like precious metals?
• Comment from JonasGrumble - Last night, my 19yr old daughter texted me "Have you invested in #Bitcoin yet?" I think we are near a top. Can you say #Shoeshinegirl?
• Question from B98 - I know straddle runs are big thing in the indexes. Don't hear them used much in the ags or metals though. Why's that?
• Question from Baspin - Is gold still the leading candidate for you guys when you're lining up collar trades?
• Question from JacksonTill - What's the biggest #option with retail crowd? WTI? Emini? Gold? Something else?

Today's CME hot seat guest is Matt Bradbard from RCM ALTS.

Topics this week include:

• Crude Oil
• WTI
• Gold
• Winners - Iron Ore, Nat Gas
• Losers - Silver, Copper

Futures Options Feedback

• Question from Lil Nic - Updates on CME #bitcoin futures?
• Question from Nick - Update on your covered put spread from 11/10?

While you're in line for your Black Friday deals, why not check out the best of This Week in Futures Options?

This week we are featuring special guest Jeff White, Executive Director of Energy Products.

Topics this week include:

• WTI Options
• Crude Oil
• Nat. Gas
• Winners - Rough Rice, Corn
• Losers - Lean Hogs, Lumber

Futures Options Feedback: Listener Questions and Comments

• Question from Last J - Hello Mark, Nice and guest - Loving the podcast. I'm new to Crude, and I'm trying to wrap my head around WTI. You said WTI 6-mo calendar spread went backward for the first time in 3 years. So does that mean it's usually in contango? Is there a good way to trade this reversion? Also, where is the spread quoted? Can I trade it on most major platforms?

Bitcoin Madness Strikes the Audience

#TWIFO Question of the week: Which options product do you want us to discuss live this Friday 1:30pm CT?

• Natural Gas
• Russell 2000
• WTI Crude Oil
• Or...Bitcoin

What Is Bitcoin Reference Rate?

• The CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate (“BRR”) is a daily reference rate Of the U.S. Dollar price of one bitcoin as of 4:00 p.m. London time. It is representative of the bitcoin trading activity on Constituent Exchanges and is geared towards resilience and replicability.
• METHODOLOGY: Aggregation of trade executions occurring on Constituent Exchanges between 3:00 p.m. and 4:00 p.m. London time
• All Relevant Transactions are added to a joint list, recording the trade price and size for each transaction. The list is partitioned into 12 equally-sized time intervals of 5 minutes each. For each partition separately, the volume weighted median trade price is calculated from the trade prices and sizes of all Relevant Transactions, i.e. across all Constituent Exchanges. A volume weighted median differs from a standard median in that a weighting factor, in this case trade size, is factored into the calculation. The BRR is then given by the equally-weighted average of the volume-weighted medians of all partitions
• DISSEMINATION: Once per day, every day of the year including weekends and holidays, between 4:00 p.m. and 4:30p.m. London time

Bitcoin Futures Contract Specs

• BRR: Currently $6811
• SIZE: 5 bitcoin, as defined by the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate (BRR)
• Minimum Price Fluctuation: Outright: $5.00 per bitcoin = $25.00 per contract. Calendar Spread and Basis Trade at Index Close (BTIC): $1.00 per bitcoin = $5.00 per contract
• Position Limits: Spot Position Limits are set at 1,000 contracts. A position accountability level of 5,000 contracts will be applied to positions in single months outside the spot month and in all months combined. The reportable level will be 25 contracts.
• Price Limits: Special price fluctuation limits equal to 7% above and below prior settlement price and 13% above and below prior settlement price and a price limit of 20% above or below the previous settlement price. Trading will not be permitted outside the 20% above and below prior settlement price.

Could Bitcoin Futures Rein in the Big Price Swings?

• After CME announced that they would soon be offering Bitcoin futures, the price of the digital currency took a big upward swing. However, CME is of the opinion that futures could actually put a stop to Bitcoin’s synonymous volatility.
• CME will be putting in place special price fluctuation limits that will help protect investors from the notorious price swings, but these same protections could also help ease the price swings and make the digital currency settle down somewhat.
• After CME announced that they would soon be offering Bitcoin futures, the price of the digital currency took a big upward swing. However, CME is of the opinion that futures could actually put a stop to Bitcoin’s synonymous volatility.
• CME will be putting in place special price fluctuation limits that will help protect investors from the notorious price swings, but these same protections could also help ease the price swings and make the digital currency settle down somewhat.
• Many believe that it is these violent swings that are stopping mass adoption of the digital currency, especially as a currency. If there was a more steady rate, then Bitcoin would be able to stretch more towards being a currency while still holding onto its power as a store of value.

Other topics this week include:

• Crude
• Gold

Futures Options Feedback: Listeners have their say

• Question from Vamp111: Ciao, anyone know when exactly CME Group will launch Bitcoin Futures??
• Comment from tmal: IMO BTC initially has monster call skew. Bring BTC to the masses.
• Question from Folfox: Do you prefer iron condor vs. iron butterfly? (I know 1 strategy wont work every time, but what scenario is preferred)
• Comment from JNL09: Not sure about the bitcoin implied volatility stated on the show last week. I was sure its at least 200.

Topics this week include:

• Crude Oil
• Gold/Metals
• Wheat/Ags
• Winners: Live Cattle, RBOB
• Losers: Rough Rice, Lumber

Futures Options Feedback: Options question of the week.

Bitcoin just blew past $100B in "market cap." If #Options were available how would you trade them?

• Buy Calls/Call Spreads
• Buy Puts/Put Spreads
• Sell Covered Calls
• Other/Hate #Crypto

Listener questions:

• Question from Mantauk - What is the actual implied volatility of bitcoin?

Topics this week include:

• Nasdaq Skew
• Crude Oil
• Gold/Metals
• Winners: Lumber, RBOB
• Losers: Iron Ore, Nat Gas

Futures Options Feedback: Listeners have their say

• Question from Danubs - Can I buy options on milk?
• Question from Bxvets - What's your favorite sell signal?
• Question from Bullobo11 - What was your most recent and promising buy signal and how did you come across it?
• Question from AdmiralTweezers - Do you foresee any innovations in market making such that it might become less centralized or more crowdsourced?
• Question from Michaelbozzello - What's the most valuable lesson you learned as a market maker that you would tell retail traders trading options?
• Question from LL0C - Mine or not to mine? Do you guys rec mining bitcoin before trading it?

Today in the CME hot seat is Derek Sammann, CME Group Global Head of Commodities and Options Products.

Topics this week include:

• Looking back on “Black Monday”
• Crude Oil/WTI
• Gold/Metals
• Winner this week: Lean Hogs

Futures Options Feedback: Listeners have their say

• Comment form T6BTL - Big on Fed watch. Any other cool tech coming to the site?

Options question of the week: Do you think #Options should be traded after-hours like stock?

• 71% - Yes!
• 25% - No!
• 4% - Don't Care!

Topics this week include:

• Gold
• Crude Oil
• Winners: Nat Gas, Palladium
• Losers: Class 3 Milk, Wheat

Futures Options Feedback: Listeners tell us what's on their minds

• Question from TMD4817: Which is a better timeframe for maxing a 1-3 day "swing" trade with options: wkly expire vs out 1 month vs out 2-3 month
• Question from Patrick Rooney: Do you use futures in your strategies? For hedging perhaps? If so, which? $ES_F? $VX_F? Other?
• Question from OpeningBellCo: Which English soccer team do you support? $MANU or not?
• Question from GGLee: Buying collars means buying skew and paying up. So does it stand that the best spy trade is selling skew by selling 25 delta puts and buying 25 delta calls? Maybe add a cheap hedge with 5 or 10 delta put in case worst comes to pass? Right now I can sell the SPY Oct 25D put for $.55, buy the Oct 25D call for $.55 and then buy put hedge for about $.20 net outlay. Thoughts?

Topics this week include:

• Crude hitting an important psychological number
• Comment from Alan: I'm down for some lean hogs and livestock
• Hogs, hog skew (gesundheit) and going hog wild
• Gold, no love for the weeklies, but standard contracts are golden
  • 15,000 Dec 2018 3000-strike calls trade; plus 7,500 each of the 2000 and 2600 strikes.
  • Fat fingers?
  • Doomsday prepper?
  • Mark is rendered speechless

Futures Options Feedback: What is on your mind?

• Question from GNDLF: Which product has the crazies skew? The juciest calls, puts, or both?
• Question from IML: Could the put skew in WTI potentially be due to electric car makers scrambling to hedge their primary risk?
• Question from Mike T.: Where do I get all this CME research?
• Question from NN78: If they did list Bitcoin options, how do you think the skew will look?

Topics this week include:

• Crude Oil
• Corn
• Gold
• Winners: Lean hogs, E-mini, Russell
• Losers: Soybean oil, rough rice, feeder cattle

Futures Options Feedback: Listeners have their say

• Question from Friendship: You mentioned the livestock products are difficult to trade. What makes them so impenetrable?
• Comment from Timz: It seems like there is no reason not to collar gold if you're long.
• Comment from Contempts: I was on the CME Group homepage earlier, and it looks like they're starting to show the love for Bitcoin, too. The screen shot referenced is here.
• Question from O'Neil: Can you break down how the Fed Watch tool works?

This week's CME hot seat guest is Sean Smith from FTSE Russell.

Topics this week include:

• Russell Index
• Crude Oil
• WTI/Brent
• Winners: Oats, Feeder Cattle
• Losers: Silver, Iron Ore

Futures Options Feedback: Listeners take over the show

Volatility Views/TWIFO Flash Poll: With $SPX #Volatility -aka $VIX- in single digits where are you getting your index vol fix these days?

• Russell 2000: $RVX, $IWM
• Dow: $DJIA, $VXD, etc.
• NASDAQ: $QQQ, $VXN, etc.
• Buying $VIX for rebound.

Listener questions:

• Question from Andrade8 - If RUT and QQQ Vol is always higher than SPY does that mean you're getting paid more to sell OTM puts?
• Question from BLM3 - Is there a big arb between $USO and WTI?
• Question from Bruno - No love for rates on TWIFO?
• Question from Lincoln G - You buying what Dimon is selling about Bitcoin?
• Question from Tatank - Crypto 20X v. other asset classes. Bitcoin for the win.

This episode features special guest Erik Norland, Executive Director and Senior Economist of CME Group

Topics this week include:

• Gold
• Crude Oil
• Winners: Nat Gas, WTI
• Losers: Lean Hogs, Iron Ore

Futures Options Feedback: Listeners weigh in

Options Question of the Week: First #Harvey, then #Irma, now #Jose & more. We prep houses/cars/family for #disasters. How do you prep your portfolio?

• Get Long $VIX/$VXX/$UVXY
• Go To Cash/T-bills
• Buy Index/Stock Puts
• "Risk Assets" - Gold, etc.

Listener Questions:

• Question from Uriah - I think CME should do an updated version of the collar study but on futures options? There are a lot of markets on the CME platform that seem well suited to collar trading.
• Question from Tomseh - Can we get a quicktrike skew index that we can track and trade?

Topics This Week Include:

• A reprise of Uncle Mike's silver collar
• What's happening to gold as a result of global unrest?
• Uncle Mike channels Scrooge McDuck
• Hurricanes not yet pummeling crude prices

Futures Options Feedback: Listener questions and comments

• Question from LLCC: Why do you think gold performed so well in the collar study?
• Question from Nelent: How did silver do in that OCC study? Same as gold?

Topics this week include:

• Crude
• Gold
• Winners - R-Bob, Heating Oil
• Losers - Oats, Milk

Futures Options Feedback:

• Question from JLC - Where can I get the collar study referenced on the show?
• Question from Mark T. - So which assets perform the best from a collar perspective?
• Question from Toms - New OIC study coming soon?
• Question from J. Marello - I heard that time decay doesn’t impact straddles the same way in futures options that it does in stocks. Is that true and are straddles better to buy in futures options for this reason?

Topics this week include:

• S&P and other indexes
• Silver and Gold
• Crude Oil
• Winners: Copper, Soybean oil
• Losers: Lean hogs, corn

Futures Options Feedback: Listener questions and comments

• Question from Sho Odwa - Hi! Which website publishes real-time commodity options quotes
• Comment from Allan - I would have thought KC Wheat would be the winner?
• Question from NN0M - Why did Tosaw put on a two year collar in silver? Why that time frame?
• Question from ReallyG - Love your #podcasts! Question: market profile displays limit orders. Is there a service that displays stop orders? Just wondering
• Question from TheBiggers: Calls are typically more bid in futures options than equity options. So does it stand that collars are more effective in futures options?

Topics this week include:

• S&P/E-minis
• Crude
• Gold
• Winner: Palladium

Futures Options Feedback: Question of the week

Which major index has experienced the largest % change in 30-day ATM #Volatility year-to-date?

• S&P 500
• Nasdaq 100
• Dow
• Russell 2000

Listener questions and comments:

• Question from Chuck M - I like the TWIFO show esp. Winners losers. Q - What about winners for the year so far?
• Question from Tomzek - How do I get winner loser scan on cmegroup.com/twifo?
• Comment from HPpetition - Is buying $S&P OTM puts "free money" like #DoubleLine says - no but selling OTM $S&P puts is.
• Question from Nils - I am confused about option contract specs in WTI. If I sell 1 put in WTI how many barrels of oil am I risking getting long?

Today's special guests are Joe Sullivan & JJ OKeefe, Chicago Capital Markets

Topics this week include:

• S&P/Indexes
• Floor-based execution
• Volatility and skew
  • Listener question: Do e-mini, SPY and SPX skew all line up in the same way?
• Metals: Silver/Gold

Futures Options Feedback: Listeners weigh in

• Question from Chris Thomas: Nick always talks about taking advantage of the skew. Creating a collar, buying the underlying, selling a call with high vol and buying cheap put protection or doing the opposite of that trade if the put has higher vol. I don't have as much experience with futures as I do indices, but "taking advantage of the skew" using spy for example would certainly have lost a ton of money over the past few years (if you shorted stock, sold puts and bought calls). I am definitely leaning more towards selling spreads on the side with high skew in futures because that has made a ton of money over the past few years in SPY and I don't seem to be making money on these collars. Any opinion on this? Anyways, thanks for everything you do and thank Nick for the awesome software.

Topics this week include:

• Crude
• Iron Ore
• Soybeans

Futures Options Feedback: Questions, comments, and more

Last week's Options Question of the Week: With VIX circling the drain, where are you looking for your next volatility fix?

• 39% - Nasdaq 100
• 16% - Russell 2000
• 20% - Commodities
• 25% - Single Names

Listener questions: Listeners share what's on their minds

• Question from Tanney9: What do you guys think of lack of OI in UUP? Is there another way to play the US$ that I I'm missing?
• Comment from Michael C. Khouw: Here is how they compare:
• 
• Question from Jack S: Doesn't WTI go out 5 years?

Question from Nils - Am I looking at quickskew graph correct? Top line goes up = call Vol goes up? Bottom line goes up = put Vol goes up?

TWIFO Flash Poll: What do you think of the planned launch of cash-settled #Bitcoin futures later this year

• I Can't Wait!
• I'm Not Interested!
• I'm Somewhat Curious
• I'm Waiting for Ethereum

This week the CME hot seat guest is Ron Bundy, CEO Benchmarks North America, FTSE Russell.

Topics this week include:

• Russell 2000
• Crude Oil
• Interest Rates

Futures Options Feedback: Listeners weigh in.

Options Question of the Week: With $VIX circling the drain, where are you looking for your next #Volatility fix?

• Nasdaq 100 - $QQQ
• Russell 2000
• Commodities-Oil, Gold,etc.
• Single Names (AMZN, etc.)

Listener Questions and Comments:

• Question from J Randall - S&P skew is pretty standard at this point. How do the other major indexes like NASDAQ and Russell compare? Steeper? Are the puts as rich?
• Question from NN02 - Crude still lining up for bullish risk reversals here or has that ship sailed?
• Comment from Tim D. - My crazy product vote is crude because it is crazy!
• Question from Andrew - How long are the reports live during the show?

Today's CME hotseat guest is Matt Bradbard, Director of Alternative Investments, RCM

Topics this week include:

• Where is the vol?
• New Zealand Dollar (our surprise product of the week)
• Crude Oil
• Corn

Futures Options Feedback: Polls, questions, comments and more!

TWIFO Flash Poll: Which Options product had largest % change in open interest over the past week?

• 50% - Soybeans
• 25% - Emini Nasdaq 100
• 8% - Copper
• 17% - Live Cattle

Questions and Comments:

• Comment from LilChech - My vote for crazy CME product is oats. Who trades oats?
• Question from Eve4 - You talked gold collars a few eps back. Silver has been selling off. Is this a good time for a silver collar?
• Question from Antim - How far out can I go in most CME options? Can I go out as far as a LEAP?
• Question from BulzEye7 - Are options worth it for day-traders? Or just for swing-traders?
• Comments on Bitcoin - What could go wrong? Re: CFTC approves options trading in Bitcoin. Can you short BTC?

Today's special guest is Tim McCourt, Global Head of Equity Products at CME Group.

Topics this week include:

• Russell Index
• Ags
• Soybeans
• Corn

Futures Options Feedback Flash Poll

There is some volatility rocking in the ags this week. Which product would you say is on your radar, or perhaps in your portfolio?

• Soybeans
• Corn
• Wheat
• Other

Listener questions and comments:

• Question from Nicker - Which major index is the most volatile?
• Question from Eve4 - You talked gold collars a few episodes back, silver though has been selling off. Is this a good time for a silver collar?
• Question from Andrew - Can you short Bitcoin BTC?